The global arms trade is not only a military issue but also a key factor influencing politics and the economy and shaping international relations. The SIPRI report for 2020–2024 provides a detailed overview of imports, exports, and trends in the global arms trade.
Data Analyzed
Based on a report Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), we can analyze current trends in the international arms trade. The categories monitored include, among others: combat aircraft and helicopters, warships, tanks, tactical vehicles, artillery, and surface-to-air missiles.
The data is presented on a five-year basis, covering the period 2020–2024.
The Evolution of Trends
SIPRI's first study of arms transfers covered the years 1980–1984. From that point on, the trend index declined steadily—though there were occasional exceptions in individual years—until the early 21st century.
Between 2000 and 2004, international arms transfers reached a record low, after which the figure stabilized. From 2015 to 2019, the rate increased slightly compared to the 2010–2014 period, while the most recent data show a slight decline compared to the previous figure. It is worth noting, however, that in 2022—following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—the figure reached its highest level of the 21st century.
The Largest Exporters
It should come as no surprise to anyone that the United States has maintained its position as the leader in arms exports, accounting for approximately 43% of the global market. By comparison, their share was 35% between 2015 and 2019, indicating consistent growth. The main recipients of U.S. arms are Saudi Arabia (about 12%), Ukraine (~9.3%), and Japan (~8.8%).
To the surprise of many, France came in second place, ahead of Russia. Nearly 30% of French exports go to India, and about 10% to Qatar and Greece. Although France’s total share of global exports rose slightly—from 8.6% (2015–2019) to about 9.6%—it was primarily the decline in Russia’s exports that allowed France to take second place.
The Russian Federation’s exports have fallen dramatically—from 21% between 2015 and 2019 to about 7.8% in the most recent period, representing a decline of as much as 64%. The main destinations for Russian exports are India, China, and Kazakhstan, which account for more than 65% of Russian arms sales.
Export Market Share
Poland currently ranks 13th among the world’s arms exporters, accounting for approximately 1% of the global market. This represents a significant increase, as our country’s share in the previous period was less than 0.05%, which translates to a rise of over 4,000%. The main recipient of Polish arms is Ukraine, which accounts for as much as 96% of exports, while approximately 1.4% goes to Sweden and ~0.9% to Estonia.
When considering the exports of European Union member states, they collectively account for approximately 30% of the global market, with France and Germany holding the largest shares. The remaining countries—Italy, Spain, Turkey, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Norway, and the Czech Republic—account for the other half of this share.
In addition, it is worth noting that the 10 largest arms exporters—the United States, France, Russia, China, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Israel, Spain, and South Korea—account for as much as 88% of global arms exports.
The Largest Importers
It comes as no surprise that Ukraine was the largest importer of arms between 2020 and 2024, having significantly increased its demand for weapons following the Russian invasion in 2022. Compared to the 2015–2019 period, its imports rose by nearly 10,000%, and Ukraine received approximately 8.8% of global arms exports. The main sources of supply were the United States (45%), Germany (12%), and Poland (11%), which is a significant achievement for our country, especially given the financial capabilities of the U.S. and Germany.
India ranked second on the list of the largest importers, although its sources of supply are different. India accounts for approximately 8.3% of global arms imports, which represents a decline compared to the 2015–2019 period, when its share stood at 9.1%. Russia remains a key supplier to India, accounting for about 36% of its imported arms, while France ranked second with 33%. The third-largest supplier to India is Israel, which accounts for about 13% of its arms purchases.
In third place, with a share of global imports of approximately 6.8%, were Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Both countries are largely dependent on supplies from the U.S.—Saudi Arabia as much as 74%, while the remainder of its imports comes mainly from European countries. For Qatar, the key suppliers, aside from the U.S., are Italy and the United Kingdom, while for Saudi Arabia, they are Spain and France.
It is also worth mentioning Pakistan, which ranks fifth in the world in terms of arms imports. The country accounts for approximately 4.6% of global arms imports, with as much as 81% of its supplies coming from China. The Netherlands and Turkey also account for a smaller but still significant share of arms supplies to Pakistan.
Share of imports
Poland ranks 14th in the global ranking of arms importers, with a 2.4% share. This represents an increase of over 500% compared to the years 2015–2019, when our country accounted for only 0.4% of global arms imports. The United States remains the main supplier of arms to Poland, accounting for 45% of all military imports. South Korea also plays a significant role, accounting for 42% of the arms imported into Poland. Italy is the third-largest supplier, accounting for 3.5% of imports.
It is worth noting that Poland is currently the largest importer of weapons in the European Union (ranking third in Europe, after Ukraine and the United Kingdom). In addition to Poland, European countries with a 1–2% share of global imports include the Netherlands, Norway, Greece, Turkey, and Italy. Meanwhile, the top 40 largest importers—albeit with a share of less than 1%—also include Denmark, Romania, Germany, Belgium, Serbia, Hungary, and NATO (as a separate entity—these figures do not correspond to the values for individual alliance member states).
Significant changes
An analysis of the data clearly shows that the trends of recent years have been strongly linked to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. This is evidenced by the fact that Ukraine has become the largest importer of arms, while Russia has seen a significant decline in exports.
Between 2015 and 2019, Russia accounted for 21% of global arms exports, but following a 64% decline, its market share fell to just 7.8%. As a result, other countries, such as Italy, saw an increase in exports, with Italy’s share of the global arms market rising by nearly 140%—from 2% to almost 5%. More than 65% of Italian exports go to Qatar, Egypt, and Kuwait. In addition to Italy, Turkey, Norway, Iran, and Jordan have also seen significant growth in arms exports in recent years.
In terms of imports, Hungary and Belgium recorded the largest percentage increase compared to the previous period, with their purchases rising by over 1,000%. A similar trend was also observed in New Zealand and Bahrain, although their share of the global market does not exceed 1.5%.
Poland's Role
As mentioned earlier, Poland’s share of global exports has increased by more than 4,000% in recent years, mainly due to its support for Ukraine. The main recipients of Polish arms remain countries with which Poland has economic and military ties, which seems to be a sensible direction for future development.
Dynamic growth is also evident in imports—Poland increased them by more than 500% compared to the 2015–2019 period. The effects of this strategy are already visible—as noted in analyses of the role of the capital market, in 2024 Poland allocated the highest percentage of GDP to defense spending among all NATO countries in Europe. Furthermore, Poland was publicly commended by former U.S. President Donald Trump for its efforts to strengthen the alliance.
Current trends point to further growth in both arms imports and domestic arms production, as well as the adoption of new technologies that may become a significant export commodity in the future. Although we will have to wait several years for the next edition of the SIPRI report, it is clear that the direction of the arms market’s development is set, and geopolitical tensions may contribute to further growth in military spending in the region.